Mohsen Tavakoli; Haji Karimi; Hadi Norollahi
Abstract
Climate change and global warming is one of the most important issues in the world that is discussed in public and professional meetings. Long term climate change forecasting has an important role on water resources planning and management, due to fragile climate of our country. The present study aimed ...
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Climate change and global warming is one of the most important issues in the world that is discussed in public and professional meetings. Long term climate change forecasting has an important role on water resources planning and management, due to fragile climate of our country. The present study aimed to investigate the effects of climate change on discharge changes in Golgol Watershed as one of the Ilam dam sub-watersheds. In this research, first, temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data were downscaled and then, hydrological condition of the watershed is simulated using SWAT hydrological model. Next, the results of downscaled HadCM3 data under two scenarios of A2 and B2 were downscaled using SDSM and in the next step stream flow of three period including 2010-2039 (2020s), 2040-2069 (2050s), 2070-2099 (2080s) and base period of 1990-1961 (Baseline), simulated using SWAT model. Finally, the effects of climate change assessed until the end of the century. The results indicated that annual discharge will decrease for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under A2 scenario by 6.3, 16.9 and 24.1percent, and will decrease under B2 scenario by 10.9, 8.8 and 13.2 percent, respectively. Resualts demonstrated that climate change as one of the negative phenomena that affects on the amount of water in Ilam Dam should be considered by managers and planners.
Haji Karimi; Abed Zeidali; Reza Omidipour
Abstract
Knowing the effects of climatic factors on the farming plants is one of the most important factors on the increase or decrease of production and this subject has an important effect on the production especially in rainfed condition and specifically wheat as a strategic product. Successive droughts which ...
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Knowing the effects of climatic factors on the farming plants is one of the most important factors on the increase or decrease of production and this subject has an important effect on the production especially in rainfed condition and specifically wheat as a strategic product. Successive droughts which occurred in recent years are one of the climatic factors which affect the agricultural products. The aim of this research was to evaluate the wheat production in the drought conditions in rainfed lands of the Ilam Province. In this regard, the regression and Pearson tests were used to evaluate the effects of drought on wheat production. The results of correlation of drought frequency on decrease of wheat production in Dehloran, Ilam and Darreh-shahr townships showed as much as 45, 67 and 45 percent, respectively. Besides, the correlation coefficient indicated that the relationship of drought and wheat production in Mehran is 58, in Dehloran and Abdanan is 61, in Ilam is 46, in Aynan is 74, in Darreh-shahr is 63 and in Shirvan-Chardavol is 85 percent.
